Goldman Sachs released research finding that industries more exposed to AI automation have generally seen slower growth in job openings since the second half of 2022, with the relationship most pronounced in Germany, Australia and the United States. Employment in information and communication services, among the sectors most exposed to AI, has slowed across nearly all major developed economies since 2022, though outside the U.S. it remains near or above its long-run trend.
Four industries have fallen sharply below historical trend across developed markets: call centers, software publishing, management consulting and advertising. Call centers are the clearest case. Employment there is 39% below trend in the U.S., down 33% in Canada and 27% below trend in Germany. Goldman said the pattern indicates that AI-related employment pressure is already visible in industries where tools capable of automating the work are available.
The bank analyzed employment growth across more than 800 occupations and found the headwinds strongest among entry-level workers, with a smaller additional negative effect in occupations considered to carry a high risk of displacement. Across the broader labor market, a 10% occupational exposure to AI was associated with a 0.1 percentage point drag on annual headcount growth in France, Canada and the U.S. For entry-level workers the same exposure ranged from more than 0.2 percentage points in the U.S. to more than 0.6 in Australia.
Goldman also combined 11 surveys measuring AI adoption and put major developed markets at roughly 15% to 20%, with France, the U.S., the Netherlands and the U.K. leading and Italy, Japan and New Zealand at the low end. Major emerging markets came in between 10% and 15%. Goldman’s own conclusion was that AI-related hiring pressure is clearly visible in employment data globally but remains limited to a relatively narrow set of industries and workers.
Read more at CNBC.